Oh, What a miracle
July 27 , 2012

So, ECB panicked out yesterday as EURO reached an extremely dangerous level as I highlighted in my week-end post ( http://smartvolume.wordpress.com/2012/07/23/week-end-post-21/ ). If you check chart there I have exactly shown the territory I suspected intervention ( http://smartvolume.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/2012-07-22_eur1w.jpg ). Let's see how it happened as that territory has been reached on a fresh EURO chart: I did not touch that chart at all. A massive intervention arrived -oh, yeah, empty words again- Greece is on verge of default, Spain is in crisis and Mr. Draghi tells: we will do everything in order to save EURO while pockets are empty and Germany just declared not giving a coin to Greece anymore. So, I remain skeptic. However, market delivered signals we need to accept and react accordingly: First of all, dollar: it almost gave a bear cross on SBV. Dollar's fall was provoked by a moderate level bearish volume, so it seems me institutions did not join to the party. An MVO bull/bear switch signaled this possibility a week ago, I need to note. Both oscillators remained bullish. Well, a swing high arrived, bu I would be very cautious about this change: institutions still have residual bull bet on dollar. RUA1D signals a large bullish volume insertion yesterday, but it also signals this bull is in a middle of a bearish cycle. I would like to see prices breach the recent trendline. We measured the fake bear since current bear started. Buying volume immediately rose from steady zero, but we must be cautious: selling volume is still above buying one. Long-term bull oscillator suffered a pretty big damage, now it's on 11%. We need to check whether this bullish breakout from fake bull is just a preparation before a much larger drop or long-term bets will pile up for a sustainable growth. Oil's momentum seems to have an exhausted bull, so I expect some drop. Miners finally gave a clear signal: an MVO bear/bull switch on 1D HUI, also a bull cross on SBV. Time to buy. 2D HU chart gives promising, but very week signals. Recent volume insertion remained weak, so institutions are not here. We have a short-term bull histo cross, an almost bull cross on SBV and weakening selling volume on SBV. Gold 2D signaled a breakout of it's long-period triangle and now sits on the upper stem. Volume insertion is unusually high and SBV has a bull cross. Trading update: I will remain very skeptic, but signals give clear motivation to buy gold and miners. Both are a few days of risky trade, 30-30%. I will try to buy SPX now, 20%. I will travel this afternoon, so I will not be able to give trading signal. Good luck!