21-NOV-2012 Before the bell
2012/11/21 03:13 am NYT


Copper -our market pre-indicator- gave clear bullish signals on JJC 2D chart: MFI is @69, positive HA with decisive buying volume, and both long and short oscillators are easing. While selling volume is in decline, buying volume remained flat zero.

RUA 2D still shows high level of institutional bearish bets (long oscillator is on level 71).

RUA 1D shows bullish insertion and imminent bull cross, also we have 3 BOW days in a row.Unfortunately long oscillator went to -38 from -37 while short oscillator rose 10% (from -39 to -29). It means while short-term institutional bearish bet decreasing, long-term bearish bets stay, so odds are high for a fake bull and a double bear formation. Blease check same formation on histos as well. The price manifestation of the upcoming volume bear on SPX will tell a lot about the general strenght of the market, also will reset VIX to have at least level 21 readings.


USD2D: Dollar's bull is weakening. As you can see, almost all indicators are signaling this weakening and now SBV flow started to signal a bear.

Zooming into USD1D signals a high probability fake bear: while short oscillator gives +3 reading, long oscillator is on level 17.Please note that non-regular MVO bull/bear switch: this setup might signal a general trend-change on dollar. Now we have an interesting setup: a fake bull versus an MVO bull/bear surge. Generally I would translate this setup for a surprising bullish run in dollar will be quickly eliminated.


Gold formed a negative HA after the recent MVO surge exhaustion and now created a positive HA. I just hold our gold and silver takes, as SBV clearly shows established bull now. Fake bear on dollar and fake bull on SPX might cause some day(s) down, but as long as 2D SBV's selling volume is flat zero I just hold.

Regarding to miners, we still have a 3 points GAP in HUI between yesterday's low and 16-NOV high. Odds are high to see that gap to be closed, so mentally we must be prepared for very quick spike down to that leavel at least.

Oil: The black gold is playing it's usual volatile game: we have a special SBV complex with both selling and buying volume in levitation.Both short and long histo signals a short-term bear.

Bonds: SBV on bonds started to give slight bearish signals, however, long histo is not weakening. My expectation is a quick contra-bull or sideways move for bonds for a few days before a rea bear comes.

Trading update: Hold existing stakes. Prepare mentally for a few, bearish days and check price manifestation.


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